Shooting Blackfish in a Barrel

June 7th, 2016

Spoiler alert: If you haven’t watched Season 6 Episode 6 yet, this post will reveal some of what happens in it. If you have seen it, read on (or click here for the rest of my Game of Thrones predictions and analysis)…unless you don’t want to know what might happen. What follows are not spoilers, since I have no specific knowledge of what’s going to happen next. These are merely predictions based on plot analysis. The may be right, or they may be wrong. Either way, I think they’re plausible, and I’d say likely, given the various hints that have been made.

 

We like the Blackfish,

And don’t want him to die.

I’m pretty sure he won’t

(Keep reading to find out why).

 

We know from the coming attractions (though it was easy to miss if you weren’t paying attention) that Brianne and Jaime have agreed that she will be allowed to talk to the Blackfish in order to try to convince him to turn Castle Riverrun over to Jaime and the Freys. The way Brianne says this to Jaime gives the impression that she thinks it a near-impossible task, which Jaime may also think it is, given that he failed to accomplish it himself (Jaime, after all, does tend to think very highly of his own abilities). I predict that it won’t be difficult at all…except of course for the obligatory dramatic buildup.

I predict that Brianne will succeed in convincing the Blackfish to abandon Riverrun and go with her to attack Winterfell. It’s only logical: this way, the Blackfish can avenge himself first on the Boltons (one of the two families who killed his sister), and then come back with the wilding army after the Lannister army is gone to destroy the Freys (the other family he and the Starks desperately want vengeance on). So, the Blackfish’s choice is that either (1) he and his men die a useless death, lose the castle anyway, and get zero vengeance, or (2) he gets his castle back, and he and his men live, and he gets vengeance on everyone, and he has a smaller army to fight against, and he has a larger army to fight with. It’s win-win-win-win-win.

And why would Jaime allow this? Shouldn’t he want to destroy the Blackfish and his army rather than let him go free? He should, if he cared about the Freys, but he doesn’t: in fact, they disgust him as much as they disgust all other right-thinking people. Jaime was instructed by King Tommen only to retake the castle: he was given no instruction to destroy the Blackfish or his army.

More importantly, Jaime personally likes and feels indebted to Brianne (as he should), and is positively predisposed to help her to the extent that he can. He also has not forgotten his promise to Catelyn Stark to help her daughters, which this would allow him to at least partially fulfill. (Appearances and conventional wisdom to the contrary, Jaime is not entirely without honor.)

This will happen within the next few episodes, and probably in the next one…though the writers may leave the Blackfish’s final decision as a cliffhanger in order to build up the dramatic tension. It will however happen.

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